Tuesday, November 27, 2012

PSSA math scores - a mixed bag

Richard Gideon prepared the following PDF showing PSSA math test results for Mt. Lebanon from 2007 through 2012. Thank you, Richard, for your analysis of the PSSA math scores.

MTLSD PSSA Math Scores 2007-2012

Mrs. Posti writes,
"If you look at the District's student achievement results since these program change proposals were approved, it appears to have been a wise decision that has resulted in academic success for our students and, anecdotally, an increased love of math that our middle and high school teachers have observed since its adoption."
The figures for PSSA math tests show a mixed bag - she is right in some cases and wrong in others.  I don't see how one can claim overall success for TERC based on these figures. There are too many variables to take into consideration with respect to these numbers. We know that students are coached prior to taking the PSSA's; but then a number of parents who haven't been thrilled with TERC have tutored their kids in basic math, or paid a tutor to do the job for them. We don't know how many teachers are supplementing TERC with more traditional techniques on their own authority.

Anecdotal evidence in math and the sciences is frowned upon by the pros.

31 comments:

  1. Elaine,

    You are correct. There is no experimental design to account for the fixed and random effects and therefore no way to assess the effectiveness of the teaching methods. Jo can't come to these conclusions.

    The test is designed to be a self-fulfilling prophecy. The questions are skewed to make ter teachers union look good so that we can all watch another self-praise glorification session during a school board meeting, that leads to another round of teacher pay increases and another success article in the MtL rag.

    Maybe the real story here is about the individuals who write the test? How much do we really know about them?

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  2. The results of PSSAs from 2008 to 2012

    Year School Adv Pro Basic Below
    2008 Mellon 65.3 22.4 8.2 4.1
    2012 Mellon 75.5 18.1 4.6 1.9

    2008 Foster 69.0 22.5 3.5 4.9
    2012 Foster 72.4 24.6 0.7 2.2

    2008 Hoover 69.7 22.1 6.6 1.6
    2012 Hoover 72.3 21.4 6.3 0.0

    2008 Howe 55.0 31.0 11.1 2.9
    2012 Howe 65.1 30.1 4.2 0.6

    2008 Jeffer 58.1 26.6 9.7 5.6
    2012 Jeffer 69.6 23.9 4.3 2.2

    2008 JeffMS 61.4 26.0 7.8 4.9
    2012 JeffMS 79.7 15.2 3.2 1.9

    2008 Lincoln 74.1 18.0 5.4 2.4
    2012 Lincoln 84.3 14.6 0.5 0.5

    2008 Markham 73.7 21.6 2.9 1.8
    2012 Markham 74.7 20.8 3.9 0.6

    2008 MtL HS 56.4 29.7 6.0 7.9
    2012 MtL HS 57.1 33.1 6.9 2.9

    For comparison sake let's take a look at Upper St Clair High School (I don't have the time to do the elementary grades)

    2008 USC HS 66.4 23.0 8.2 2.7
    2012 USC HS 67.4 22.6 6.8 3.2

    Based on this, the USC math curriculum seems to produce better PSSA results than Mt. Lebanon's.

    Now one other point of reference is the Times-Tribune PA SAT Scores Database. According to the database the 2011 scores looked as follows

    2011 MtL HS Verbal=575 Math=589 Writing=573
    2011 USC HS Verbal=574 Math=594 Writing=580

    2008 MtL HS Verbal=564 Math=581 State Rank=6
    2008 USC HS Verbal=566 Math=587 State Rank=4

    USC has kept its lead on Mt. Lebanon over the last 5 years despite the change in math curriculum.

    Additionally, they started at their high school with a higher baseline to their PSSA scores and have maintained that level and even slightly increased it.

    Howe and Lincoln seem to score the worst and best respectively when compared to other elementary schools. The rest of the elementary schools fall within a realm of being statistically similar.

    As an aside, and seconding what an earlier poster (the student) suggested earlier, just because you are proficient or advanced on the PSSA does not mean you are good at math. It means you can pass basic math that will be used in the real world. There is no calculus but there is a lot of Algebra II and Geometry. Any formulas the student might need for the exam are given to them in the front of their booklet. (http://www.montroseareasd.k12.pa.us/pssa/pssa_samples/Gr11Math06.pdf)

    I understand the frustration on the part of many parents when their kids come home with math that makes no sense. I have been in that same boat with my kids. I still don't get how they think their subtraction method is better than what I learned in school, but it does work. My son was very good at picking up the new math but my daughter is much better at doing it the old-fashioned way (which they start to allow again in the second half of 5th grade) I don't pretend to know what the answer is, only that the change in math curriculum was an attempt to bring up scores and better educate the students.

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  3. James, not to undermine your hardworking , but I you sure you have your numbers right?
    From the PG Interactive site Elaine contributed earlier, it shows Foster falling below Howe.

    School Proficient or above
    LINCOLN EL SCH 98.4%
    JEFFERSON EL SCH 98.1%
    MARKHAM EL SCH 96.0%
    WASHINGTON EL SCH 93.7%
    HOOVER EL SCH 93.6%
    HOWE EL SCH 92.6%
    FOSTER EL SCH 92.3%

    Looking at these numbers, something pops out that might be worth investigating. The more affluent neighborhoods rank significantly higher than than the others.
    Could this be they're working with better stock from the gene pool?
    Or maybe the higher income parents are smarter and able to supplement their kids studies themselves or with hired tutors. Perhaps they demand more of their kids?
    Or might it be the "wealthiest" neighborhoods are assigned the most competent teachers?



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  4. Let's not lose sight of the real issue here: 138 families (not just "10 malcontents" on a Blog), many of whom are engineers, lawyers, etc., do not feel that their children are getting a quality education in math, and they are blaming it on TERC. They may be right to do so, or wrong; but the point is they have done their homework on the issue, enough to confront the District with their concerns.

    Look, there is a certain amount of (gasp!) work required to master math. Some people are naturals at it; others are not. So be it. Other countries recognize this: in India, where math is almost a religion, kids are expected to do the work. It's the "expectation" that makes the difference. It's amazing what you can get out of a kid if you explain in simple terms what is expected of him or her.

    As to the PSSA results in Mt. Lebanon vs. USC; one thing I think we can all agree on is that our youngsters do better than the state or national average. But would you expect less? Look at the gene pool from which these kids come! If mom and dad have college educations would you not expect a higher-than-normal performance from their kids? Educated people tend to flock together, and as far as I'm concerned this contributes more to the success of our students than do our teachers - as good as they are. (By the way, the real test of our teachers would be to give them a class of kids from Duquesne and see what they can do with them.)

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  5. In the 11:02 comment those scores are only regarding math from the PG interactive site. I believe reading showed similar scoring between the 3rd grade test.

    Corection-
    James, not to undermine your [hard work], but [are] you sure you have your numbers right?

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  6. The numbers are right. Please see this link:

    http://www.portal.state.pa.us/portal/server.pt/community/school_assessments/7442

    I used the date from the following sets:

    2011-2012
    2007-2008

    James

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  7. I've only started looking at the test-score data for lower grade levels, so I'll reserve comment for later, but for now here's a plot I made to summarize MTLSD's PSSA results for math, reading, science, and writing for the last 10 years: mtlsd-students-by-pssa-achievement-level-10-year-history.pdf. (I also have similar plots for peer school districts like USC and North Allegheny. They have their ups and downs, too.)

    Take a look at the math scores and tell me what you see.

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  8. James, we may be comparing apples to oranges. The PG info i cited applies only to 3rd grade math results.

    Anyway Mr. Gideon is correct let's not lose sight of the big picture. There seems to be a lot of compelling evidence to open an in-depth study. An it should be done quickly as once we send kids thru the system we can't very easily send them back to be fixed.

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  9. Tom, my initial observations are that the percentage of students performing at basic or below basic seems to be shrinking among students grade level 7 and below. TERC went into effect in '07 right?
    But beyond that I don't see anything glaring pro or con. Advanced and proficient seems to be a mixed bag. Grades 3 and 5 look flat. Grade 4, 5, 6 shows an upward trend in both adv and proficient.
    What really jumped out, but has nothing to do with the TERC issue is the plots for writing.cRease 5 shows a dramatic drop in advanced. I would assume writing skills to stay constant. Could we be seeing the impact of computers and texting?
    Are their communications skills eroding because of technology?
    That'll have to another discussion at some point insuppose.
    Thanks for the plots. Anxious to hear your observations or conclusions.

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  10. One thing to consider...the PSSA is a VERY low measure (in other words a very easy test). If your student is basic or below basic they are 1 to 2 years behind in their math skills and their parents should act immediately to remediate that student. If they are profisiant or advanced they are at grade level. Advanced to deceptive. Verify for yourself at PDE's website. They are also very responsive to phone calls. FYI

    http://www.education.state.pa.us/portal/server.pt/community/pennsylvania_department_of_education/7237

    They have so much data that you could spend days getting a better idea where students with basic or below basic stand.



    Parents and community members can learn more about their schools by visiting the following websites:

    To name a few things you can look into. You don't have to file a right to know either.

    Academic Data and School Report Cards
    Graduation Rates
    Drop Out Rates
    Student Progress
    Average Daily Attendance by Schools
    Contact Information for Schools

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  11. Well, Timmy updated his blog to discuss two of his favorite things, math and science. Oops, I meant to say "conversation with great students and pizza." Superintendent's Blog

    Saved in Google Docs

    I am relieved to see that the students are no longer standing on their heads. What the heck does "preparatation" mean?

    When will he be blogging about something worth $157,000 a year?
    Elaine

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  12. How refreshing, visiting the supers blog.
    One can't find iimpertenent, irrelevant humor like that just anywhere.
    Too bad it comes at such a high price.

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  13. I believe the PSSA score is meant to measure the failure rate among schools. It by no means can measure how good the curriculum is. Thus, while thanking several contributors on this blog, I am afraid the detailed data analysis on PSSA scores does not provide much insight on how to improve MTLSD's curricula. We need a real test. It is a pity we pay big price (tax) to get a little-better-than average education. Just look at the other countries. Why does US have to borrow so many brains in STEM (Sci. Tech. Eng. Math.) field? Are foreign students suddenly better than US produced student on the average? The US students skills/interest deteriorated over time while the level of foreign students remained about the same. This is my observation in the science field for over 10 years. Meanwhile some folks still want to push sports agenda. MTLSD stands for MTL "school" district, not MTL sports district.

    Concerned one.

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  14. Can anyone answer the following questions about the TERC deployment at MTLSD?

    1. When was the TERC regime first deployed?

    2. Was it deployed to all MTLSD schools at that time?

    3. What grade levels was it deployed to at that time?

    4. Was it deployed to additional grade levels in later years? If so, what was the deployment schedule?

    Having the answers to these questions will help in interpreting the test-score data. If anyone can shed some light on them, I'd appreciate it.

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  15. The numbers James gave are PSSA scores and the numbers Anon. 11:02 gave from the PG are the percentage of students scoring proficient (a C grade or higher for AYP). This is like comparing a score on a final exam to the number of student who achieved a C grade of higher. It is likely both numbers are correct but they are not comparable numbers.

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  16. Here lies an answer that should have a question on the PSSA exam.

    http://zanylol.com/amazing_grace.html

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  17. "While its objectives and the roll-out were clearly communicated when it was first implemented, if you were a parent whose children weren't yet in school in 2007, Investigations may not have been on your radar until your child was old enough to bring home work using a strategy you weren't familiar with."

    Tom, reading the excerpt above from Posti's Center Court, it appears she has the answers to you questions. Seems it was rolled out in 2007.

    Once again, with all the current interest in student achievement right here in our own public school district, does she find it necessary to report on charter school performance standards?

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  18. Think about this for a few minutes, please, before you tell me I'm nuts.
    What is Posti's preoccupation with charter schools?
    Is there a huge exodus from the MTLSD that this a constant worry for a board member that admits she doesn't have the qualifications to think on her own about curriculum matters?
    Is this such a huge issue that she spends her day preusing eastern PA newspapers for anti- charter articles?
    Besides, if there are a few Lebo students running to charters, the district could easily recoup their lost dollars by going after a few high priced, underassessed McMansions.
    I speculate that it's more that Pres. Posti is being used as a dupe by the people she uses for guidance.
    I'm betting the articles come from the PSBA and union and are designed to protect their monopoly in education by getting voters in every district to lobby their representatives to thwart charters.
    Seriously, are charters an enormous threat to one of the top performing districts in the state?

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  19. Tom,

    I'll answer as best I can.

    1. 2008-2009 would have been the first year for the new curriculum.

    2. Yes, it was introduced to all grades at the same time but I believe it was an elementary curriculum, not a high school one.

    3. See above

    4. Not that I can remember. All at once.

    I think what you are searching for is where this curriculum might show up on test scores.

    I think it is quite simple. Look at the 6th grade scores starting in 2007-2008 (prior to implementation) and compare them to scores at the same level from the following years. As mentioned above, 2008-2009 I am pretty sure was the first year it was rolled out and since I am very confident that it was rolled out at the elementary levels, looking at 6th grade scores would seem like the most likely place to start.

    8th grade scores may be the next to look at but I think high school scores won't show the effect of the curriculum for another 2-3 years.



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  20. To illustrate the biased reporting of the Posti postulate, why is it we never read her suggesting that we visit sites like the following from PBS. http://www.pbs.org/closingtheachievementgap/faq.html

    One section reports this:
    "Do charter schools work?
    Every charter is different, and may of them are new. But their general success is consistent. An August 2001 report from the Center for Education Reform found that in 65 research studies done on charter schools, 61 found that charters overall provided innovative, accountable and successful. To read CER's 2003 summary of charter school research findings—overwhelmingly supporting the viability and success of charters—see What the Research Reveals About Charter Schools."

    You may also want to visit The Center  for Education Reform.
    http://www.edreform.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/No_More_Waiting_Charter_Schools1.pdf
    Be sure to read the last topic titled: "Charter Truths"

    Once again, I suspect in a head-to-head comparison, MTLSD probably outperforms even the best charter school. But as I asked before, what is the reason for the board president's preoccupation with charter schools? And why do we only see Center Court articles disparaging them?

    I mention this here as a suggestion that maybe the board should be concerned more about it's district performance, rather than watching charter school results.

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  21. I am hoping this is not the announcement about the District trying to get feedback from parents regarding math. This was found in one of our local PTA newsletters:

    Family Math Night
    Washington Elementary would like to invite you to discover the excitement of math with your child! Family Math Night at Washington will offer an opportunity for you to experience an overview of our mathematics program as well as a variety of hands-on math activities in a cooperative and fun environment. We hope to see you there!

    Please join us on Thursday, December 6, 2012 at 6:00 pm for a presentation/demonstration on these strategies and resources. You're welcome to bring your children to participate.
    ~ Mary Kay Davis, Principal

    Nothing against Mrs. Davis, but I am hopeful there will be an actual meeting to discuss this instead of a parent re-education camp.

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  22. You're kidding, tell me you kidding, please.
    Working moms and dads are suppose to rush home from their 9-5 job, grab the kids and head over to Washington School for Family Math Night!
    Are our administrators and teachers so disconnected from life in the private sector as to be oblivious to a world outside their little sphere?

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  23. 6:00 P M is when they schedule meetings they don't want you to attend.

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  24. A couple of posts ask why Mrs. Posti seems "preoccupied" with charter schools. Here's my take on it (after a bit of explanation; good question, by the way):

    Last year I visited Young Scholars of Western Pennsylvania, tucked away in Baldwin on the border with Club Lebo. I found the school in a former nursing home, that had itself once been a school. There was a lot of remodeling going on the day I visited, but I was given a great tour of all the classes by Principal Alpaslan Ozdogan, and even got to have some fun with the kids. YSWPA is now a K-8 school (at the time it was just K-5).

    Every student that leaves the District for YSWPA takes his state reimbursement with him; meaning Lebo loses money. In addition, I firmly believe that our school board is terrified of what a direct grade for grade comparison of YSWPA students with Mt. Lebanon students might expose. Maybe Lebo kids would do better in math, writing and science; but maybe not. But just like the results of a referendum, I don't think the District wants to chance a comparison.

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  25. I'm surprised the night isn't scheduled for 3 or 4pm, because we are in Leboland. Many times concerts and special events are scheduled for daytime hours.

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  26. To be fair to Jo, I don't think she is as upset about a loss of funding as she is of the payments made to Charter Schools.

    http://triblive.com/news/2145443-74/charter-schools-tuition-costs-pension-district-districts-state-formula-students#axzz2DYSb1jLg

    There is an error in the formula for reimbursement but that can be fixed.

    Jo has mostly argued that she doesn't like that the district loses the student and then has to pay for it. Clearly, it is a drain on the school.

    Of course, what Jo doesn't understand is that the way to fix the problem is to make Mt. Lebanon schools more competitive and perhaps even have an open mind about having an online-only branch of the Mt. Lebanon School District.

    That type of education delivery method is surely accepted as the wave of the future. Charter schools are catching that wave (and students) to the detriment of the brick and mortar institutions that are adverse to change.

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  27. Has Josephine ever detailed why she opposed to charter schools or is she just diverting our attention from other issues?

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  28. James,

    You did us all a favor with your PSSA analysis. It is easy to see where the various schools compare in math. Some schools have a lot of work to do and the HS has a serious math differential with USC. The Board and Administration can no longer hide behind their math deficiencies.

    Thank You,

    John

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  29. 4:28 by all means we should be fair to Jo as well as all the board members.
    I even had my doubts that I might be on a wrong track and therefore asked if I could be nuts.

    Reading Jo's blog I couldn't help but wonder why every post was negative towards charters when simple web seaches turn up a plethora of evidence in their favors. That and why would charter schools be multiplying in number if they were performing worse than public schools.
    A red flag went up when Jo, in commenting on the math program, said the board relied on the administration to evaluate curriculum. If she didn't think she was qualified to analyze rograms under her watch, why in the world would she be analyzing charters and forwarding her findings to her constituents.
    Are charters performing, will they negative impact public schools or lift them through competition,
    I don't know.
    But students, parents and taxpayers are entitled to a fair and unbiased evaluation.

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  30. someone needs to right to know how many students are in charter cyber schools from mt lebanon. my guess is that it is 800 students in other placements other than the mt lebanon school system. Including cyber charter, approved priviate, christian, catholic and private schools.

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  31. Never imagined that the number of students out of district could be that high.

    Now that would be an interesting study. How those students SATS and PSSA scores compare to their conterparts in the Lebo system. Private citizens would never be given access to the info but maybe a university or the PDE could in the name of research.

    With the MTLSD cost/student reaching the level of college tuition if charters are performing better we could subcontract with them to run say the k- 5 grades. If they can achieve better resultsfor less money, that is.

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