Jon Delano and the March 13 Special Election

Dear Politically Savvy Friends,

Yes, that is YOU, my friend, someone who has crossed paths with me in my role as a political analyst (KDKA-TV), a professor (CMU's Heinz College),  a public speaker & moderator (for many associations and organizations),  a friend, or maybe  an 'activist' of sorts (in my church & community).  Whatever our relationship, I value it and invite you to read on.

It has been a long time since I took fingers to keyboard to share some insights on things political but the March 13 special congressional election in Pennsylvania's 18th District prompts this analysis.

Will this first congressional election in 2018 be a rebuke to President Trump and the Republican Party or a reaffirmation that the President's specialties to white working-class voters in America's heartland remain strong?

Can Democrat Conor Lamb score an upset in a district won by President Trump by nearly 20 points?  Or will Republican Rick Saccone hold on to the Trump coalition of Republicans and "Trump" Democrats in the 18th that delivered the state of Pennsylvania to the President in 2016?

I live in this 18th District, so I am seeing this contest up close and personal.  My thoughts are solely my own, and I would welcome hearing yours.  Write to me at jon.delano@verizon.net.   By the way, while this newsletter is just about the 18th District, I have another in the works about all the other races in Pennsylvania.  This state is really key to the control of Congress in 2018.  Stick with me.

Before I go further, here are two quick plugs I usually make in my PSF newsletters.  First, if you need a moderator or speaker for a program, feel free to get in touch with me at jon.delano@verizon.net.  This is a great year for politics and the role of Pennsylvania in shaping the new Congress.  Second, if you are looking for a terrific summer vacation on the island of Nantucket, we have a family home where we lease to friends.  If interested, get in touch for more details.

Now, read on.

AN OVERVIEW:

Scandal in the 18th:

The 18th Congressional District, nestled in the southwestern corner of Pennsylvania, was originally designed by a Republican legislature and governor in 2011 to keep former U.S. Rep. Tim Murphy, an Upper St. Clair Republican, in office for life.

I'll have more about the demographics of the district below, but the current 18th is a combination of Pittsburgh suburban, some distinct small towns, and rural Appalachia all wrapped up in one.  It includes southern & western Allegheny County, Greene County, Washington County, and southern Westmoreland County.

And Murphy could have stayed in Congress there forever until he tripped things up last year with an affair with a woman half his age.  The whole matter probably would have remained a secret had not the woman, Shannon Edwards, engaged in a messy divorce from her then-husband who insisted on knowing more about the man with whom she allegedly cheated.

When the Pittsburgh Post Gazette reported some text messages between the congressman and the woman in which Murphy, a strong pro-life congressman, had arguably urged Edwards to have an abortion when she thought (mistakenly, it turned out) that she was pregnant -- well, Murphy's fate was sealed.

At first, the long-time Republican lawmaker thought he could ride it out.  After all,

he was hugely popular in the 18th.  After his first election in 2002, Murphy had won reelection 7 times with no Democratic opponent in 2014 and 2016.  The last Democrat to take him on in 2012, the pro-life & pro-gun Washington County commissioner Larry Maggi, was crushed by Murphy 64% to 36%.

Murphy, one of the hardest-working members of Congress I've ever known with a willingness to show up at just about every event in the four-county district, was seemingly invincible.  The report of his affair and abortion hypocrisy changed all that.

Initially, Murphy announced he would not seek reelection in 2018, hoping to serve out the rest of his term.  But House Speaker Paul Ryan had another view, worried that the issue would be used front and center against all Republicans if it was allowed to fester.  He apparently urged Murphy to resign, thinking the 18th District would be safe and secure for another Republican.  Reluctantly, Murphy did just that on October 21, 2017.

It was now up to Governor Tom Wolf, a Democrat, to schedule a special congressional election.  At first, many Democratic insiders argued for a special at the same time as May 15, 2018, Primary, thinking that's when the most Democrats might turn out to vote.

But, on reflection, these same leaders realized that the Republicans were having more competitive primaries (especially in the governor's race).  On the theory that Democrats would be more energized to turn out to vote in a special election focused solely on the 18th District, Wolf tossed a "Hail Mary" and scheduled a late winter special election on March 13.  If Lamb wins, it will be a brilliant decision.

Picking a Candidate:

For special elections, both parties in Pennsylvania do not permit a primary.  Instead, the nominees are picked by the party leaders, albeit some are very local party leaders.  Still, it's an insiders' game, full of deal-making and power plays.  The average voter, Republican or Democrat, has no say in the party's nominee.

The Republicans used a "conferee" process whereby some 215 conferees selected by the chairs of the four-county parties ultimately picked the party's nominee.    Each county was allocated one conferee for every 1,000 votes it cast for Trump in the 2016 presidential election.  That meant there were 80 conferees from Westmoreland County, 79 from Allegheny, 50 from Washington, and 6 from Greene.

On the first ballot, PA Sen. Guy Reschenthaler of Jefferson Hills got 75 votes to 74 for PA Rep. Rick Saccone of Elizabeth and 66 votes for PA Sen. Kim Ward of Hempfield.   On the second ballot, insiders tell me, Ward threw her support to Saccone.

Going into the event, party insiders thought Reschenthaler would be the nominee.  Ironically, his resume looks a lot like Lamb's, although he has some electoral experience.  He's an energetic, 34-year old moderate-to-conservative Republican from the South Hills suburbs who served in the U.S. Navy as a lawyer.  But Ward's supporters preferred the more conservative Saccone who had told me in an early 2017 interview that he was "Trump before Trump" and who more clearly embraced the President's views.

On the second ballot, the 59-year old Saccone defeated Reschenthaler easily, 123 to 91.

To pick their nominee, the Democrats assembled the elected committeeman and woman from each of the election precincts in the 18th District.  Party officials said that meant 901 local neighborhood Democratic leaders were eligible to vote.  In the end, 554 of them showed up to cast a ballot.

On the first ballot, former Assistant U.S. Attorney Conor Lamb led with 225 votes, followed by 153 votes for Westmoreland County Commissioner Gina Cerilli and 90 votes for Pam Iovino, a former Veterans Administration official.  Three other candidates trailed, including psychologist Rueben Brock, former Allegheny County councilman Mike Crossey, writer Keith Seewald, and emergency physician Bob Solomon.

In the second round, Lamb won 319 votes, more than twice Cerilli's vote and enough to secure the nomination.

So by late November, both parties had their candidates.  Republican Rick Saccone versus Democrat Conor Lamb.

WHO ARE THESE CANDIDATES?

If you are inclined to believe the negative assault on each of these men's characters playing out on television and radio, you would necessarily believe that both Saccone and Lamb are the scum of the earth.

Not so.

I have known Saccone since 2010, and he is a decent family man who is passionate about his Baptist faith and strong conservative principles.  I once saw Saccone learn from another about a personal family health issue and immediately put his arms around that person and lead a small group prayer.  Whatever you think of his positions, he is the real deal.

A professor at St. Vincent College, Dr. Saccone -- yes, he earned a Ph.D. from the University of Pittsburgh in public and international affairs -- has written a number of books over the years.  A career U.S. Air Force officer, Saccone served in Korea for many years where he worked in special investigations and counterintelligence.

His elected service began in 2010 when he defeated an incumbent Democrat, PA Rep. David Levdansky, by just 151 votes in an overwhelmingly Democratic district.  In 2012, he beat Levdansky again and then cruised to re-election with 60% of the vote in 2014 and 70% of the vote in 2016.

On issues, when he says he's "Trump before Trump," he means it.  During the KDKA-TV debate, I tried to get him to identify an issue on which he disagrees with the President.  He couldn't name a single one, other than his personal support for the Steelers because Trump favors the Patriots.

 Admittedly, Conor Lamb is new to me, as he is to most voters.  But I have certainly known his family over the decades.  His grandfather, the late PA-Sen. Tom Lamb, was Majority Leader of the PA Senate in the 1970s.  I knew him after he left the Senate and served in a number of governmental positions, and he was always one of the nicest individuals.  I have known Conor's father, Tom Lamb Jr., for decades.  Back in the 1980s, Tom worked in Washington for former U.S. Rep. Austin Murphy when I was chief of staff to former U.S. Rep. Doug Walgren.

The family has deep roots in politics.  Conor's uncle Michael Lamb is the Pittsburgh city controller and formerly elected twice as Allegheny County prothonotary.  His uncle Jim Lamb has been the head of the Ireland Institute of Pittsburgh for years, an organization closely identified with the late Ambassador to Ireland Dan Rooney of the Pittsburgh Steelers.

A graduate of Central Catholic High School, Lamb went to the University of Pennsylvania for both his undergraduate and a law degree.  Graduating in 2009, Lamb joined the U.S. Marines where he served as an attorney until completing military service in 2013.

He was then hired by the U.S. Attorney David Hickton as an assistant U.S. Attorney in western Pennsylvania.  On his website, Lamb claims he "led prosecutions against drug dealers and violent criminals and helped establish the Justice Department’s Pittsburgh office as a national leader in the fight against the heroin epidemic."

On issues, the 33-year old Lamb is a bit of a tabula rasa, a blank slate.  Unlike Saccone, there is no legislative record by which to measure his statements or promises.

From the beginning of this campaign, Lamb has called himself a moderate Democrat, pro-gun and pro-life, but not so pro-NRA as to oppose stronger background checks for gun purchases and not so anti-abortion that he would overturn a woman's right to choose.  He has embraced support from labor unions and would raise the minimum wage, but won't go so far as to support a living wage at $15/hour.  He likes the Affordable Care Act but not the Bernie Sanders' single-payer "Medicare for All" approach.

Republicans have tried hard to link Lamb to Democratic House Leader Nancy Pelosi and the "coastal liberals" who dominate the Democratic Party in Washington.  Early on, Lamb said he would not vote for Pelosi to lead the party in the House, but presumably if Democrats take control of the House in 2018, Pelosi will become Speaker again, regardless of how Lamb votes.

Lamb has tried to link Saccone to Speaker Paul Ryan, especially after Ryan signaled that he'd like to "reform" Social Security and Medicare now that the tax bill has become law.  Most Democrats think Ryan is out to cut those entitlement programs.  For his part, Saccone says he will not cut Social Security or Medicare, the right thing to say in an "older" district like this one.

While the candidates' positions on key issues may be what motivates some voters, my gut says this election is really all about Donald Trump.

If you like the President, you will vote for Saccone.  If you can't stand Trump, you will vote for Lamb.  

IS THERE A SPOILER?

The first time most voters will see Drew Gray Miller's name will be when they vote next Tuesday.  He is the Libertarian candidate in the 18th District, and in a neck-and-neck race where voters are turned off by the negative advertisements, he could be a spoiler, as he told me in an interview.

Miller is an energy attorney who says his practice makes him a natural for a district with so many natural resources.  He worked in the PA Senate where he says he resolved, on average, one thousand constituent issues each year.  Somewhat unusually, he lives on the South Side, which is not part of the 18th District.

 A typical Libertarian, he calls himself fiscally conservative but socially progressive.  For example, he says he is the only candidate in this race who is both personally and publicly pro-abortion rights.

Can Miller make a difference in the 18th?

Most Libertarians get between 1 and 4 percent of the vote in Pennsylvania, but that can often be the difference.

In the 2016 U.S. Senate race between Republican Pat Toomey and Democrat Katie McGinty, for example, Toomey won by just 86,000 votes (out of 6 million cast).  An unknown Libertarian, Edward Clifford, won 235,000 votes, 3.89% of the votes cast.

With that in mind, let's take a closer look at the 18th District.

18th DISTRICT BY THE NUMBERS:

 Political analysts will tell you the 18th District is Democratic by registration but it votes Republican.  That's exactly right.

 But the registration figures today are a lot closer than you may have thought.  You often hear that Republicans are outnumbered by 70,000+ in the district, but that's only true if you add the Independents to the Democratic totals.

My friend and political demographer David Wassel have some of the most up-to-date registration figures.   Overall, the 18th has 231,130 registered Democrats and 207,029 registered Republicans, an edge of just 24,000 Democrats.  When you add in the 62,279 voters registered as Independents or in other parties, you can see the district is not quite as "Democratic" as some might think -- 46% Democrat to 40% Republican to 14% independent or other.

The Allegheny County portion of the district is the largest voting block with roughly 187,000 voters followed by Westmoreland County with 163,000 voters, Washington County with 112,000 voters, and Greene County with 12,000 voters.

The district rarely votes Democratic.  My old friend from DC days, Charlie Cook of the Cook Political Report, gives this district an R+11.  That means that a Republican should generally win this district by 11 points.

In 2016, Trump beat Hillary Clinton in this district by nearly 20 points.  In 2012, Romney beat Obama here by 17 points.  In 2008, McCain beat Obama by 11 points.  In 2004, Bush beat Kerry by 9 points, and in 2000 Bush beat Gore by 4 points.   If anything, over the last 20 years, the trend has been for this district to be more, not less, Republican.

Even a generally popular Democrat like U.S. Sen. Bob Casey could not carry this district back in 2012 running against an unknown Republican named Tom Smith.  Casey lost to Smith in this district by nearly 30,000 votes.

The district is overwhelming white, nearly 96 percent, and organized labor claims there are 87,000  union or household members in the 18th, including retirees.  Of course, labor's strong support of Clinton did not help her against Trump here, but Saccone has taken positions in Harrisburg that are much more easily characterized as "anti-labor."  As a result, the state's AFL-CIO and local labor leaders appear to be going all out for Lamb.

The fact that both the Cook Political Report and the Inside Elections/Rotherberg Political Report call this a "toss-up" election is remarkable, given the district's historic voting patterns.  But special elections, especially one scheduled in mid-March, are notoriously unpredictable, and this one is no exception.

THE MONEY GAME:

Television viewers in southwestern Pennsylvania cannot wait for this campaign to end.  Every other TV ad is a negative attack on either Saccone or Lamb.  I always remind folks that candidates and their allied groups have a First Amendment right to lie about each other -- and they do.  But it doesn't make the experience any more pleasant.

The Center for Responsive Politics (CRP) calculates that outside groups have already spent more than $7 million flooding this market, and we're not done yet. The CRP has identified 17 political action committees or SuperPACs engaged in this campaign with some $4.8 million used to attack Lamb and $2.2 million used to praise Saccone.

Speaker Ryan's PAC, Congressional Leadership Fund, is the number one big spender at  $2.55 million, with the National Republican Congressional Committee a close second at $2.25 million.  Maybe this is no surprise since it was Ryan's decision to push Murphy into early retirement that created the vacancy, to begin with.  If Saccone loses, it becomes a huge political blunder for Ryan.

What has made the difference on the Democratic side is Lamb's ability to raise lots of money for his own campaign? While the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has been largely absent (i.e., just a two-week $312,500 buy a few weeks ago), over $3.87 million has been donated to Lamb's campaign.  It has allowed him to be more than competitive on the airwaves.

One of the newest entry into the marketplace has been President Trump's SuperPAC America First Action.  For the last two weeks of the campaign, this PAC is spending $1 million to elect Saccone and defeat Lamb.  Joining the fray this last week is VoteVetsPAC, a Democratic veterans group that is spending $350,000 to attack Saccone and promote Lamb.  It's message: "To fix Washington, send in the Marine."

In the end, it would not surprise me if a total of $15 million was spent on this special congressional election.  The irony is that the winner will only serve for 9 months.  Under the state Supreme Court's reapportionment plan for 2018, both Lamb and Saccone will live in new districts, not the one they are running in today.

Win or lose, Saccone is expected to move and run in the new 14th District which will comprise much, but hardly all, of the current 18th, while Lamb, win or lose, is expected to run against U.S. Rep. Keith Rothfus, a Sewickley Republican, in the new 17th District.  Only about 20% of the old 18th is in the new 17th.

But given all the money spent in this special election, both Saccone and Lamb have a leg up on the competition.

REFERENDUM ON PRESIDENT TRUMP:

With President Trump planning to campaign for Republican Saccone on the Saturday before the election, it simply reinforces my basic belief that this election comes down to a referendum on the President.

The question is whether a national "wave" begins in the heart of Trump country in this first congressional election of 2018?  Or can the President and his congressional allies postpone the reckoning until later this year?

My gut is that momentum and passion are on the side of Lamb, and I would not be surprised if he pulled this off.  A lot has been made that he has "central casting" qualities and he has deftly straddled the issues that doom many Democrats, but, in my view, that's not what will motivate voters to come out and vote on a cool March day.  [Current forecast: partly cloudy, high of 43, 20% chance of rain].

If Lamb wins, it will because of an avalanche of anti-Trump voters, especially in Allegheny County,  who want to send a clear message to the White House.  For months, I have seen groups of people, primarily suburban women, organized in a variety of "resistance" groups.  Lamb's campaign has tapped into this and skillfully organized an impressive ground game that could prove decisive, especially if less motivated Republicans and Trump Democrats stay home.

Ironically, the President's visit on Saturday will energize the anti-Trump vote and be an asset to Lamb's weekend GOTV ("Get out the Vote") efforts.

But it could also prove to be an incredible help to Saccone, reminding southwestern PA voters what's at stake if the man they backed for President loses an ally in the Congress.

In my view, all the numbers still favor Saccone winning the 18th, especially if Trump voters in Westmoreland and Washington Counties turn out to vote.  In 2016, Trump got nearly double the number of votes that Romney received in these counties, and I am not sure he has really lost these voters since then.  As always, the question is whether they will turn out to vote for Saccone.

So a toss-up seems a fair analysis.

If Lamb wins, liberal pundits will hail the start of a national wave election that will return Democrats to control of Congress.  Conservative analysts, of course, will blame Saccone and will say that Lamb "really ran as Republican-lite."

If Saccone wins, liberal pundits will say the district was just "too Trump, too conservative, and too white" for even a moderate Democrat, while conservatives will say that the President has not lost his special appeal to working-class voters in the heartland.

The eyes of the nation -- or at least those of the political class -- are in Pennsylvania's 18th District for the next few days.  If you live in the district, enjoy the attention but, more importantly, vote on March 13.  It is one election where it's easy to say that your vote could make the difference!

Well, if you've made it to the end of this epistle, five golden stars. I hope you've enjoyed this quick run-down of the special congressional election.  I've got a lot more to say, especially about the gubernatorial, senatorial, and congressional races on the ballot, but let's wait until closer to the May primary. No surprise, I really value your comments (always off-the-record), so write to me at delano.jon@gmail.com. Stay in touch!

All the best,

Jon

Jon Delano
Political Analyst
H. John Heinz College of Public Policy & Management
Carnegie Mellon University
Pittsburgh

 [As always, these views are my own and not those of the wonderful organizations with whom I am associated].