March 24, 2015 11:00 AM Pro-deer culling Mt. Lebanon commissioner steps down from post
Applications & resumes accepted for Ward 3 Commission seat thru April 13. Must be US Citizen, 25+ years old and a Lebo voter for 2 years. Instrux online.
Monday, March 23, 2015
Kristen Linfante resigned
It is true. Effective immediately, Kristen Linfante has resigned as commissioner of Ward 3. The commission has 45 days to fill the position. Any Ward 3 resident interested in serving may submit a résumé and letter of interest to Manager Feller.
March 24, 2015 11:00 AM Pro-deer culling Mt. Lebanon commissioner steps down from post
March 24, 11:58 AM This is an important notice from LeboALERT.
March 24, 2015 11:00 AM Pro-deer culling Mt. Lebanon commissioner steps down from post
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75 comments:
HAPPY DANCE!!! However, I do not wish ill health on anyone. Well, maybe members of ISIS or something like that....But still, ONE DOWN!
So did she do it herself? Or have Feller the messenger boy do it for her? Guess the Commissionettes had enough.
The only problem with Linfante resigning is that the pro-cullers get to appoint a new puppet that will have the advantage of being the incumbent come election time.
If they can control themselves and not launch any controversial initiatives like PAYT, they'll make a clean sweep in the election again. Then they'll start spending all over again.
It's about time! We have ALL been waiting for this! Morgan and Feller need to go, too! We taxpayers need to keep the pressure on Muni employees who are not doing their jobs, including the other 3 ding-a-ling Commissioners!
Maybe the local Rs will suddenly grow a spine...haha...nah. It'll be the same old nonsense. They'll appoint some lackey and nothing will change.
8:51 Try not to get all doomsday on everybody ok? They do more than spend. They do serious damage to people behind the scenes. It's really unimaginable.
Now's the time for fellow San Fran transplant LaBalme to step up!
9:00 and I'm getting doomsday?
Crazy Cori. Just watch.
March 23, 2015 at 8:51 PM
Yes, this is my concern. They won't approve anyone that is against the deer killing program, and then they will be an incumbent with name recognition.
Or, does the person that applies for this position not allowed to run for office in this upcoming election?
Didn't you already have to file to be a candidate?
How about it Elaine, you're real popular with the current commissioners. I'm sure you would be a shoe in.
Hmmmm....
Just yesterday, someone did ask the Jeannie in the Bottle...for KL to resign! Two more wishes to go!
9:40 PM, this is an appointment to serve until December 31, 2015, which is the end of Kristen Linfante's term.
Yeah, 9:40 PM, "Anyone but Bendel," "I'm dead to Dave Brumfield," and Steve "sell more Gatorade" Silverman would definitely vote me in. They need someone who wants artificial turf all over Mt. Lebanon. Yeah, I'm a shoo in.
Elaine
9:40 To run in the primary you already had to have filed. In the general election I don't think the deadline has passed.
So they could appoint a pro-culler, skip the Ward 3 primary and pit the incumbent up in the general election.
As far as the appointee not being allowed, didn't they appoint Lebowitz to fill the vacant seat then he ran in the General Election?
9:27 Just saying that everyone has to maintain some hope... because this situation is worse than you think. I am doomsday and I am just asking that you don't join my club.
Oh gawd, not Labalme! Or Papke.
Then there's the guy that accused people of hijacking the community.
Did Bendel apologize for this inhumane, cruel, egregiously expensive, stress inducing and ineffective cull?
The Trib indicates that he "urged" residents to move beyond the "divisiveness" that he and his associates caused... so I am just wondering if he took responsibility on everyone's behalf.
Also, did he highlight what the municipality has learned from this debacle and how they are going to ensure it doesn't happen again?
Elaine, everyone in the community except his closest buddies are dead to Dave Brumfield. He's the commissioner who doesn't read contracts, will not reply to emails and will not lift a finger to solve a community problem. Remember the missing brick on Crystal (his very own street) and CSB that remained missing for quite a long time. The solution was to put one of those orange cones where the missing brick were that remained there for over a month. One other thing, when you send an email asking why he didn't reply to your original email from two weeks ago, he'll always tell you that it was on another computer that he hasn't checked in a while. So basically he's admitting that he ignores emails. I really wish he was resigning too.
Nick M.
Move beyond his failure and arrogance?
NOT A CHANCE.
You built this.
You OWN this.
The Pro-Kill well dressed faction including Mrs. Logan was out in force and spoke tonight with same old line about large volumes of deer and the deer poop..god help us all..most of the audience left after citizens comments,, and there was some very unpleasant exchanges between a few of the peta ladies and the Logan contingent..
10:59 pm
Nick -
I hope you are sitting down. I have bad news regarding bricks and related street maintenance. Mt Lebanon is patching brick streets with black asphalt. Yes, it has come to this.
They are also using asphalt to remedy gaps in sidewalks that have become misshapen or cracked due to tree roots.
Likewise, cones are now used to remedy hazards. For example, the sidewalk in front of one of the elementary schools now routinely ices over for some unknown reason. I'd say about 4-5 cement blocks become a sheet of several inch thick ice when surrounding areas have been salted and remain ice-free.
The answer: cones. Maybe it's a joint cone/asphalt project between the muni and the school district. I am not sure.
-Doomsday
10:41 PM, "Anyone But Bendel" apologize? Are you kidding? Never. They want to take a couple months to fully evaluate the trap and kill program.
I found out where the numbers came from on the Lebo website. It came from a study that Tony Denicola did in 2013. Yes, 2013. According to Anyone But Bendel, Denicola's numbers were more accurate than the aerial survey done in March of 2014. I reminded the commission that in 2013, aerial surveys were the gold standard. 2014, they were inaccurate.
A resident asked if background checks were done. Feller said that the Game Commission recommended them. A quick check showed DUIs and drug charges. We discussed that here. Watch the video tomorrow and look at their reactions when the speaker mentioned DUIs and drug charges. Based on Feller's response, I said that the answer was no to background checks.
Elaine
11:20 Oakmont snickers at Mt. Lebo patching brick with asphalt.
Then again, when you'll never have an Open, what difference does it make?
How much money did they pay Denicola?
11:19 PM
Im the "peta lady" you speak of and its just me :) and i am not really a peta lady anyway, BUT i told Barbara Logan that killing doesnt work and she is behind Linfante's cull because she never could get culling to work as a commissioner- then another woman grabbed my elbow and i raised my voice towards the police officers and said Ma'am if you touch me again I will have the police officer arrest you for assault.
THE WITCH-FANTE IS GONE!!!
I don't recall discussion of DUIs and drug charges found in the deer killers' backgrounds.
Seriously, Elaine? Please let us know.
Also, how many of the motorists that hit 100 deer in Mt Lebanon this past year were under the influence of substances or have a shoddy driving record?
There are plenty of DUIs in Mt Lebanon -- every week, right?
Not saying people who hit deer are terrible drivers, necessarily, just wondering. I am sure it's easier to hit deer at night and under the influence though.
11:19 PM Could the high school students clean up deer stool from the gardeners' yards for their community service hours? They would spread tolerance for wildlife and good will at the same time Perhaps, the would be among the first high school students in the entire country to provide such a service.
Please, someone suggest this to the high school principal. There cannot be any service needed in this community that is more significant.
12:03 PM and everyone else who wants to know about the killers backgrounds:
WE FOUND DUI, MARAJUANA CHARGES, DRIVING WITHOUT INSURANCE AND LICENSES -- FOR COMPANY VEHICLES!! Among other things, Benner is older so I'm sure his old crimes have gotten wiped off...
12:07 AM, I could think of a couple services needed in this community that are more significant like garden assessmens such as what Kelly Fraasch is working on, and unrelated to deer, snow removal feom sidewalks for those individuals who need assistance.
12:03 AM, the municipality did not do a background check. Seriously.
Elaine
Thanks to Elaine Rosenberg who spoke for those who can't speak for themselves. I planned to ask if they would sign a petition to ban bait-trap and shoot culling in Allegheny County. As a non- resident I was silenced and Elaine R took over for me. She did a great job. In the end, only Kelly Fraash signed the petition. signed. I am guessing that they have not taken Benner's return off the table. Don't be surprised at anything they do.
btw: Elaine will have a copy of the petition on the blog as soon as I can get it to her. Please feel download and copy it and pass it around. The objective is to get thousands of signatures to present to the County Exec and the Count Council. Any Allegheny resident 18 or over can sign.
im on the other side of the fence from Linfante and you would think her resignation would make me happy.. however,, because the divide in my own family .. divorce is probably next from me also...
Doomsday at 11:20, as a resident of Castle Shannon Blvd. I know all about the patchwork process of the brick roads. I've seen it for way too long now. I've also seen asphalt used to fill in the gaps in the sidewalks around Mellon and the Library (plus other places), I believe those gaps are caused by the heavy use of rock salt over time.
The point I was trying to get across was that Dave Brumfield lives roughly 15 to 20 houses up from Crystal\CSB. All Mr. Brumfield had to do was give a call over to Tom Kelley and ask Tom to have one or two workers pop by and dump a little asphalt where the bricks were missing from, using maybe 20 minutes of time, problem solved within 24-48 hours. But for some reason, Dave Brumfield could not do that and the solution was to use an orange cone. Now, one might say that PennDOT should have taken care of the issue because the problem occurred on a state owned road. I've talked to PennDOT...they wouldn't care who fixed it and neither would the drivers whose front ends got smacked hard when they hit those holes. Mt. Lebanon repairs Mt. Lebanon Blvd. and that's a state owned road too. To be honest, because the missing brick were so close to where the roadway meets, I don't know if it was Crystal or CSB brick.
It's just like the issue with the deer crossing signs. If the objective of the deer management program was to reduce the number of deer vehicle collisions on our roadways, then why do we have 12 brand new deer crossing signs sitting down at the public works building collecting dust. These are tools to be used to alert drivers about deer crossing the roadway and not one commissioner suggested, "hey, maybe it would be a good idea to put some of those deer crossing signs that we have sitting down at the public works building for over a year now to use."
Maybe I'm expecting a little too much from the commissioners, I don't know.
Nick M.
E. T. Gillen 10:41 PM
Elaine, DeNicola is the most infamous deer culler in the country. He has a totally biased agenda when discussing deer numbers in Mt. Lebanon or anywhere else. Deer cullers always inflate deer numbers and tell communities that they have a major deer problem. That's how they make their living. DeNicola's unscientific extrapolation to 400 to 600 deer after the 2014 survey only counted 196 deer with many of those deer counted outside of Mt. Lebanon's border is a total con job, and typical modus operandi for DeNicola.
DeNicola uses sterilization as a Trojan Horse to differentiate his firm to win a cull/sterilization contracts, because no other firms do deer sterilizations. However, once he wins the contract he exaggerates the estimate of the deer population, like he did in Mt. Lebanon, and using Mt. Lebanon as an example, he then recommends that he needs to kill 250+ deer to reduce the population before implementing a sterilization maintenance program. He kills all the deer, and then he sterilizes a few token deer to fulfill his contract.
This is DeNicola's typical scam, because it's easier and more profitable for him to kill deer. It's easier, cheaper, and faster for him to hire shooters vs. bringing in an experienced Vet and an outfitted surgical vehicle to do the sterilization's. Sterilization's have more overhead expense and requires more human resources, and his sterilization capacity is stretched very thin across the country, and so why he uses this sterilization Trojan Horse scam.
So unless the Commission tells him that they only want him to do sterilization's, then that is the typical scam he pulls. If he's told only to do sterilization's, he will only do sterilization's. At the end of the day, he's a mercenary and will do what he's told to do for money. If the commissioners aren't committed to safe and non-lethal solutions, then DeNicola will persuade them to slaughter all the deer first, and will then just do a few token sterilization's.
And what's even more troublesome about this scam, is that it often works to divide the anti-cull residents and movement, i.e. some will accept this kill/sterilization compromise thinking that it's better than all the deer being slaughtered, and they don't have a clue that the kill/sterilization program is a Trojan Horse scam for a total culling program, just like DeNicola presented to Mt. Lebanon. 1) Inflate the deer population numbers to 400-600. 2) Say that you have to kill 250 or more deer to reduce the population before sterilizing deer. 3) Divide the anti-cull movement by getting some to accept this scam compromise. 4) Kill all the deer in Mt. Lebanon, and then sterilize a few token doe to fulfill the contract.
11:19 PM "peta lady"
Barbara Logan pushed for and got the 2006/07 and 2007/08 deer killing program, and she's the main puppet master behind the scenes pushing for the current deer killing program.
Pulling the curtain back to see what's the real motivation for turning Mt. Lebanon into a dangerous private hunting club and shooting gallery.
Below are some press quotes from ex-Commissioner Barbara Logan who started the push for a deer killing program back in 2006/07 time frame.
"My shouting and screaming at them does nothing," she said.
"My concern is that if, or when, this plan happens, many of us will be disappointed because our deer are not in an area where we can cull them," said Commissioner Barbara Logan.
"I'm afraid that once we start culling them, they'll lay low until it is over,"added Logan
Ms. Logan said she understood that some people are upset at the thought of killing deer, but whether they die from old age, disease, hunger or hunting, "One way or another, the deer are going to die."
Make your own assessment, but these quotes give the impression that killing the deer was a personal agenda. No mention of car-deer collisions.
Commissioner Logan rejected an offer from Jay Kirkpatrick Ph.D., the Director of the Science and Conservation Center at Zoo Montana (www.sccpzp.org), one of the leading wildlife contraception scientists, to help Mt. Lebanon implement a PZP deer contraception program. There are peer reviewed studies published in scientific journals showing suburban deer populations reduced over time by 35-50%. (http://www.animalfertilitycontrolvaccine.org).
The deer haters club baton was passed from Commissioner Barbara Logan to appointed Commissioner Bonnie VanKirk (Raja leaving), and then to Commissioner Linfante. Barbara Logan endorsed and served on Linfante's executive committee during her campaign. Linfante's campaign manager was Rob Papke, who is a "gentleman" gardener, and an avid deer hater, because they eat his flowers.
They're using Denicola's deer count estimate from before 2013!
Did they subtract - "Mt. Lebanon police Deputy Chief Aaron Lauth said that in 2014, South Hills Cooperative Animal Control picked up 316 deer apparently struck and killed by vehicles in the 12 South Hills communities they cover, including 106 in Mt. Lebanon."
How many deer did vehicles take out in 2013 in Mt. Lebanon?
Hell as a community we were more efficient eliminating deer than the Great White Hunter and the drivers weren't even trying.
Besides, insurance paid for it, right solicitor so it's not a problem.
March 23, 2015 at 10:30 PM Oh gawd, not Labalme! Or Papke.
No doubt, there is likely a sinister strategy behind Linfante's departure, and who will be selected as the new appointed temporary Commissioner. I'm sure the main requirement is that the candidate hates deer and will vote to turn Mt. Lebo into a private hunting club and shooting gallery. No other experience necessary.
As I understand, based on Facebook and Mt. Lebanon Magazine posts, Rob Papke is an avid gardener and deer hater. He was Linfante's campaign manager. So Barbara Logan (puppet master and served on Linfante's executive committee), Kristen Linfante (puppet), and Rob Papke (campaign manager) are the three amigos of the Mt. Lebanon deer hater's club.
I VOTE FOR ELAINE---FOR COMMISSIONER. IT'S A PERFECT FIT.
At 10:10 AM, I received this email:
I am pro cull and I am a Ward 3 resident. Watch out I am coming.
Regards,
Anonymous | worthrick@yahoo.com
Note: This email was sent via the Contact Form gadget on http://lebocitizens.blogspot.com
Good luck, Worthrick!
Elaine
They are really sore losers!! I think the pro cull people are so angry they lost round 1. Bring it on pro cull. We are ready for round 2!!
AGREED! ...as an aside...back in the day..a friend stood on the DC Court House steps alone protesting "NO MORE WAR" a policeman told him that he was wasting his time..ur alone..he told the policeman..but thousands will follow ...."Vietnam "...this is a new day for the Animals ..FBI "Animal Abuse/Crime Against Society"...Deer Memorial...just finished my Oil Painting/work on Lyrics...just so u know.
"In the coming months, we'll decide how to move forward,” said commission President John Bendel, who urged residents to put the divisiveness behind them."
What did Bendel just graduate from the Hillary Clinton Online Correspondence School of Political Obfuscation?
Regarding the waste of tax dollars, the senseless killing of six deer, the animosity created amounts neighbors and the soiling of Lebo's good name why didn't he just say: "What difference at this point does it make? It is our job to figure out what happened and do everything we can to prevent it from ever happening again." (Clinton on Benghazi)
But no he can't even do that. He and Feller are already setting the stage for another round of deer control SNAFUs to appease the privileged class.
Before we spend one more red cent on consultants, surveys or anything else we should examine and dissect some information from our very own Police Dept.
The Trib writes: "Mt. Lebanon police Deputy Chief Aaron Lauth said that in 2014, South Hills Cooperative Animal Control picked up 316 deer apparently struck and killed by vehicles in the 12 South Hills communities they cover, including 106 in Mt. Lebanon."
316 deer, according to Lauth were struck and killed by vehicles in 12 South Hills communities. 106 of them in Mt. Lebanon alone.
That means in the eleven other communities 210 deer were struck and killed for an average of 19.09 deer killed in each.
106 killed by vehicles in Mt. Lebanon! Then the other communities average 19 in USC, 19 in Whitehall, 19 in Castle Shannon, 19 in Bethel, 29 in Scott, 19 in Dormont, 19 in Heidelberg and so on. These are averages, we'd have to investigate the actual counts for each community.
So the big question, why 106 incidents in Mt. Lebanon? Do we have that many more deer than any of the others?
Are we bad, inattentive and drunk drivers?
It can't be culling and not culling can it?
USC culls, Castle Shannon doesn't?
So before we go running off willy nilly, hiring consultants, conducting aerial surveys... why don't we put our heads together and see if we can figure out why our accident numbers are so high.
Could it be USC killed 200 deer? That would mean the other 10 communities only averaged 1 each!
Hey, we have a lot of intelligent people in our community (and some really, really dumb ones), let's see if we can figure this one out without spending money!
Anybody following the deer meat donation? Any news?
And I suppose you're not even breathing hard, eh Worthrick?
You been "walking the dog" too?
11:36 am
Between 2006-14, two pedestrian were killed on Mt Lebanon streets and 124 additional pedestrians/cyclists were hit by cars. Last year, over 100 deer were hit too.
We have accidents because the drivers are out of control and there is not adequate enforcement or community response to this epidemic. We also possess a systemically corrupt and ineffective municipal leadership that perpetuates the existence of a traffic board that is unaware of most issues associated with the streets and unable to make the necessary changes to promote public safety.
Parents are aware of these matters and many are protecting their children by driving them back and forth to school. Kids spend less time playing outside due to a number of issues, and thus, parents drive them back and forth to countless activities to fill the vacuum. These factors, among others, add many more cars to the streets. Many of these parents do not even follow traffic regulations.
Numerous additional factors add to this serious and growing community problem. Mt Lebanon's deer are a casualty associated with this long standing problem.
What is a Lebo Voter? Does that mean you voted or are just a registered voter?
2:43 AM- Barbara Logan... yes exactly why i said something to that nasty crotchety lady...
12:00 pm.
I agree, look at the latest week on the police blotter. Hit and Run, Hit and Run, DUI, DUI, DUI.
There's something drastically wrong here and it has more to it than just deer.
Wasn't Mt Lebanon registered in 2013/14 as one of PA's highest incident of drug overdose communities? Maybe that has something to do with drivers out of control. Or maybe it has something to do with the obsession to kill deer? Maybe both.
I agree the replacement for Ward 3 will be "Crazy Cory" (or is that Cory Steel or Carrie Doe on blog sites).
The community in the link below can take great pride in their attempt to manage their deer program.
Here in forward looking Mt. Lebanon, we became a laughing stock and now hang our heads in shame for our deer management efforts.
Commissioners, can you see the difference. Hastings on Hudson may or may not fail.
We already know what happened to your plan! Yet, still you spin stories and manipulate facts.
So here's a suggestion. Before rushing into another killing spree, why not get the deer X signs up, enforce the no feeding ban, get an accurate count of the herd, work on a South Hills joint deer management plan and open a regular dialogue with the people at Hastings on Hudson to monitor the results of their project.
No that would require some thinking, some effort and that'd take time away from the PIOffice launching mind-numbing polls and writing about grocery shoppers, elves and whatever.
http://m.humanesociety.org/news/press_releases/2014/03/Hudson_deer_fertility_control_032014.html
The commission would be wise to choose someone NOT involved in the deer issue.
A lot of you are forgetting the goal of the other members (minus one). They want that indoor sports facility. They want turfed fields.
I predict the person picked will be either on the SAB or in league with them.
But, then again, this commission has not shown any wisdom whatsoever in any of their decisions and there's big money pushing the deer kill.
--Tom the Tinker
Sort of feel sorry for Kristen,, i always wonder what if she knew she would be the new queen of the deer killing..when she signed up to run for office.. interesting thing is that she showed emotion at the meetings which is more that the Cruella group of finely coiffured Lebo ProKill Ladies..to me those women who week after week spoke in their monotone voices at the meetings were/are controlling sociopaths..scary..
Several weeks ago, I applied for a seat on the traffic board. I am anti-kill. Thus, I never heard anything from the municipality about my application.
Where are the reports on this? Exaggerated to say the least!
Here ya go Adam's Mom:
https://www.google.com/fusiontables/DataSource?docid=19fRINm3LAiefCo_hAXUdnXWvkKaVzC_ZbzNHmNJU#map:id=4://
"Mt. Lebanon police Deputy Chief Aaron Lauth said that in 2014, South Hills Cooperative Animal Control picked up 316 deer apparently struck and killed by vehicles in the 12 South Hills communities they cover, including 106 in Mt. Lebanon."
I wonder if the Deputy Chief could provide us with a break down of the deer struck and killed in each of the other 11 communities in the Coop?
He's told us Mt. Lebanon had 106 in 2014.
It'd be interesting to see the 2013 numbers as well.
8:42 am
I'd like to see where the 106 deer were hit and previous several years worth of data as well. If all of this culling is designed to reduce deer motor vehicle collisions, how is it possible that these collisions have not be analyzed and mapped?
Anonymous at 8:42 AM, I believe that the earlier years' counts of deer collected by Animal Control are summarized in the table on page 4 of the Mt. Lebanon Deer Management Plan. To make the trends more visible, I've plotted that data for you: Graph: Reports of probable deer-related car accidents in Mt. Lebanon 2000–2013.
If anyone is curious, I measured the growth trend over the years 2000–2006, before any culling was done, and it was about 11% per year. That's less than one third of the "unchecked, the population will double every two years" rate that has been quoted in the press as applying to "deer nirvanas" like Mt. Lebanon. (BTW, the authors of the Deer Management Plan describe the deer population in Mt. Lebanon as "gradually rising," so they apparently didn't believe the doubles-every-two-years hype, either.)
Yep 12:03, one would think if deer are really an issue in MTL you'd start with getting data and analyzing the most potentially life threatening aspects of their existence here.
Saving a tulip is way down the list compared to the claim of saving lives.
Not only is this a mainly a gardening issue but it's also part of the "curb appeal" when selling Lebo houses to get away from all of our taxes..
Tom, I was able to recreate your 11% figure, but want to remind you that the 11% growth is not actually unchecked. The accidents are in fact a check on the population.
If all the accidents didn't happen and all those deer were still alive, I bet we could get to a doubling every two years.
By "unchecked" I meant "without culling."
Expanding on my earlier reply, the original source of the "unchecked" claim is a recent Post-Gazette article that includes this:
"Mike Tonkovich, a Ph.D. who is the deer program administrator for the Ohio Division of Wildlife, said a 150-pound whitetail will consume 10-12 pounds of forage per day, or close to two tons each year. Unchecked, a suburban deer herd could double in size every two years."
As you can see, the doubling claim was made for suburban deer herds, which are understood to suffer attrition from cars.
So I believe that my use of "unchecked" is consistent with the quoted use, i.e., meaning "absent culling or other management."
I could be wrong on this but the way Mr. Benner has worded his illustration on page 4 of his deer management plan is very misleading. He states that animal control picked up 339 deer due to deer vehicle collisions between 2010 and 2013.
I find this number very hard to believe. If it were true then I would come to the conclusion that the majority of the deer population would have been wiped out due to deer vehicle collisions. I could understand if animal control responded to that many calls for all different reasons, but to associate those numbers to deer killed in Mt. Lebanon by vehicles just doesn't make sense. Do we have any hard data to back his numbers up?
Nick M.
Tom your graph is very interesting in that it shows a drop in deer related accidents after the 2007-08 culls. But that drop disappears and deer accidents skyrocket in the years after.
The evidence seems to support the claimed rebound effect that the protesters and PETA have been proclaiming.
Another question why does the police report show a drop. Could that relate to the feeding ban?
We really need to examine the data from the other 11 communities in the South Hills Co Op.
Anonymous at 5:15 PM, yes, the growth rate immediately after the culling (2008–2010) seems much faster than in the pre-cull years. It then slows down: over the years 2010–2013, the growth is roughly 7% yearly. (It’s noisy data, so that’s a rough estimate.)
To be honest, I had doubts about the “rebound effect.” I figured that after a cull, with lowered competition, the deer population would grow faster naturally, but no faster than when the population was originally that low in pre-cull times. (Remember, the growth rate naturally slows as the population increases.) But, at least according to these figures, the growth rate in the year or so after a cull is markedly faster than when the population was at the same level in the pre-cull years. I’m still at a loss to explain what causes the phenomenon, but after seeing this data I’m nudged toward believing that the rebound effect is real. Still, the effect appears to be temporary.
As for the chart’s dip in police-reported deer-vehicle collisions, I wouldn’t make much of it. From the animal control data, you can see that there is a lot of natural variation from year to year. Weather probably has a lot to do with it. Regardless, without having many years’ data, it’s hard to believe that such changes reflect genuine movement in subject of interest.
the deer mv collisions, however, cannot be assumed to reflect the size of the herd or the impact of culling. This is just descriptive data.
Anonymous at 9:32 PM, it’s hard to imagine a plausible causal model for deer-vehicle collisions that doesn’t also predict that the number of deer-vehicle collisions is proportional to the number of deer. Any model that didn’t make that prediction would probably be demonstrably wrong about its predictions for other testable phenomena.
Still, a reasonable model would also predict that the number of deer-vehicle collisions is also proportional to the number of vehicles on the road. For example, our model might be:
(# dvc) = (# deer) * (# cars) * k + e,
where k is some factor representing the yearly rate at which each deer and each car in an area just happen to be at the same place at the same time (causing a collision), and e is an error term representing the natural variation from year to year that our model doesn’t attempt to predict.
So, under a reasonable model like this one, another hypothesis that’s consistent with the observed data is that the deer population has remained the same but the number of vehicles on the road in Mt. Lebanon has generally been increasing, except for sudden drops that just happened to coincide with the deer culls. This hypothesis is consistent with the data, but it’s harder to believe because it requires coincidence to explain the sudden drops in DVCs after the cullings and it requires the number of drivers in a built-out community to steadily increase. (But who knows. Maybe the growth in drivers is coming from neighboring communities?)
For what it’s worth, my take is that these DVC numbers probably do track (proportionally) the deer population in Mt. Lebanon.
It would be interesting to incorporate the decreasing availability and use of public transit in the analysis. Bus routes have been reduced substantially over the past 10 years in Mt Lebanon and neighboring areas.
The community is not technically built-out when more apartment buildings continue to go up... likewise in USC and other neighboring areas. I do not have a list of all the new construction but there are at least two separate apartment complexes in MTL and numerous (and unprecedented) in USC.
I just went over to google.scholar to see what's going on with "reducing deer motor vehicle collisions" since 2011. There were 2270 articles listed. When I added the word "cull" to the search, only 135 articles remained. The idea of "culling" to reduce deer motor vehicle collisions was present in 6% of the articles. In other words, this makes me wonder if Mt Lebanon is not just caught up in consuming deer management services when other mainstream non-culling methods exist that would help to reduce the dmv accidents.
From my point of view, this is an aggressive, gun-happy violent method perpetuated by the game commission, wildlife society and other business owners to reduce motor vehicle accidents that has not be proven in prospective studies.
I'm not buying it.
The question no one has asked!
Looking at Tom Moertel's graph it is plain that deer related accidents rise and fall year to year.
So armed with that knowledge how will we ever know if any cull is reducing those accidents by 50%?
It's is a feel good, we're doing something destination which we'll never know if we reached it or not.
I created two hypotheticals about the Mt Lebanon deer population. A fun exercise.
First graph shows what a doubling of the population every two years would look like. This is obviously an unrealistic "nirvana." All the tulips in Lebo could not sustain 20,000 deer; what the carrying capacity of our fair municipality seems like a tough number to pin down. This assumes a 5:1 doe:buck ratio, a eight year average "unchecked" lifespan, and a yearly fertility rate of 0.85 fawns per sexually mature doe (does seem to lose fawns regularly, either by infant mortality or stillbirth). The "Nat Death" column assumes that 1/8 of the deer die a natural death every year (again, presuming an eight year average lifespan).
Second graph is the same as the first except that I included the annual vehicular deaths and the culls from 2007 and 2008. It's pretty remarkable how those factors keep a hypothetical population in check.
8:56am - I don't doubt that your conclusions are sound, based on the data you have manipulated via your spreadsheets. But just for the record, where did you get your premise data; i.e., "5:1 doe:buck ratio, a eight year average "unchecked" lifespan, and a yearly fertility rate of 0.85 fawns per sexually mature doe.."?
Tom's graph indicates, among other things, that if we HEED the "facts" provided by the Ohio Wildlife "expert" (and documented by the Post Gazette) that the deer population will double yearly if left "unchecked" and that we should see roughly 14,000 deer in Mt Lebanon based on the counts beginning in the year 2000.
So what say you, Mt Lebanon: do you need to listen and pay for EXPERTS like Bendel tells you to or is it time to start demanding respect for the smart citizens that reside in this region?
At 10:29:
We all know that the Post Gazette delivers very Inaccurate reporting. I would hardly call their reporting as, " documented evidence." They can't get their facts straight. This is evidenced by Elaine's prior posts on the deer culling. Who are you trying to kid?
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