Counting deer using TERC Investigations UPDATED 4X

The Almanac's article, Survey: Lebo deer population increased dramatically (saved in Google Docs) reported that 342 deer were counted, which came to 57 deer per square mile.  Kristen Linfante rounded that number up to 60 per square mile during the meeting.  The Almanac reported correctly, but the math is flawed.  What was said at the meeting on Monday was that the count included deer two miles outside of each border. The reasoning behind that is that deer live in a two mile area.  So here is a math question for everyone.  If Mt. Lebanon is six square miles and the "Mt. Lebanon PA project area" extends two miles in every direction, how many square miles is that? For extra credit, what is the actual deer count per square mile? Not 60 deer per square mile, that's for sure! No extra credit will be given for this, but consider the amount of deer counted within the two mile borders.  Following the logic, are they from Castle Shannon, Bethel, Scott, or Upper St. Clair just passing through?

Here is a copy of the deer survey which Tom Kelley touched upon on Monday night. Chief Coleman McDonough discussed the increase in deer incidents, but also pointed out that residents may be more apt to call the police now to report a deer SIGHTING.  We all know how quickly Kristen and her following like calling the police for perceived incidents. Filing a police report and comparing me to the Gabby Giffords attack when an anonymous comment discussed the execution of a document, or when a resident cautioned her not to speak of her family during a public school board meeting, or when terroristic threats were allegedly made to her when she had Real Lebo, or how about when she had the police show up on private property because of an alleged sign stealing incident are just a few that come to mind. 

Ms. Linfante's concern for public safety seemed to dissapate when I brought up the dangerous situation in front of her house. It occurs when there are cars parked on both sides of her narrow street at the crest of the hill.  An accident at that blind spot "is only a matter of time." What the Kluck?

Update June 26, 2013 5:50 PM From a 5:26 PM  Lebo ALERT :

This is an important notice from LeboALERT.

2013 deer management study is posted at www.mtlebanon.org. If you have comments, contact your commissioner.

If you have difficulty finding them on their website, I have them here.  They are easier to read than what I originally scanned since these are in color.
Vision Air Deer Survey 2013
2013 Deer Locator Map

Update June 27, 2013 6:40 AM Following my last blog comment at 4:34 AM, I sent an additional email to the Commission concerning the survey.  The email exchange follows. Where's Dave Brumfield when I need him?

At 5:32 AM, I wrote:
OK, I officially was up all night. Kristen rounded up the count to 60
deer per square mile. That makes it 2520 deer in Mt. Lebanon. What was the
count, Kristen?
I have a class at 9 AM. That is in 3.5 hours. Thanks, guys.
Elaine Gillen

At 5:41 AM, I heard from Kristen:
Well, Ms Gillen, I am awake as well.  Surely, your lack of sleep has gotten the best of you.  We are 6 sq. miles and there were 342 deer counted. Period. That equals about 57 per sq mile, or 60 as I stated since I rounded up - which seemed appropriate after the May births.
If you look at the GIS you will see that only a few deer were counted on the boundary edges - appropriately so, I might add, per Mr Kelley's explanation about their habits.
Kristen Linfante
Commissioner, Ward 3

6:01 AM, I responded with:
Kristen, who did the math? You or Tom? There were 342 deer counted in 42
square miles. Listen to what Steve and Tom said. Period.
Elaine

6:06 AM, Kristen's comeback:
Ms Gillen,
This will be my final response to your absurd emails.
I think the recommended animal to count to help with sleep is sheep, not deer. Perhaps the switch might help.
With your lack of sleep, please drive carefully to your class- there are a lot of deer out there.
Kristen Linfante
Commissioner, Ward 3

Update June 27, 2013 4:15 PM Dave Brumfield sent me an email today, after I sent this to the Commission this morning at 7:34 AM:

Commissioners, I am sending a link to a Google Doc which a Lebo Citizens reader created for my Lebo Citizens blog. It may help Kristen better understand what Tom Kelley and Steve Feller said at Monday's Discussion meeting. https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B9r_1biKte_bQnRrb2p0Y2E3NGM/edit?usp=sharing
Elaine Gillen

I got this response from Dave Brumfield, sent at 9:22 AM:

Ms. Gillen,

I wanted to clarify a few apparent misconceptions you have about the results of the deer survey.  First the aerial survey did not add a 2 mile buffer to all of Mt. Lebanon.  For efficiency's sake, due to our irregular borders the area was squared off.  This certainly made the survey area greater than Mt. Lebanon's actual footprint, but it was nowhere near a 42 square mile area.  Mr Kelly did point out that some of the deer included in the count were over 2000 feet from the border, but even that distance is not consistent all the way around the map.  When discussing the deer outside our borders that were included in the count Mr. Kelly did mention that deer have a 2 mile radius that defines their "living area".  But to be clear the survey results do apply to Mt. Lebanon's 6 square miles.  The count reflects the number of different deer that are likely to be seen within our borders.  Taking a snapshot count of an active deer population we have to account for their movement patterns.  The density numbers cited by the commission and staff are accurate based on the survey results and Mt. Lebanon's actual area.  They might be misleading if a neighboring community did a similiar survey, as deer would be double counted, but as an assessment of how many deer are contributing to our reported incidents it is accurate as stated.

Additionally, I would ask that in the future if you intend your information to be of assistance to just one Commissioner please send the email just to them.  If you intend it for all of us than address your comments and questions to all of us.

Thank you.

Dave Brumfield

I would have sent this sooner, but as I indicated in my earlier emails, I have been in class all day.

Update July 2, 1013 12:08 PM The map below shows the bullet range of a stray bullet.  The map is of town in NY which is 1.5 miles in its widest point. It is conceivable that a shot could be fired on one border of Mt. Lebanon and travel all the way to the other side of Mt. Lebanon.

Mt. Lebanon hiring firm to count deer

Harry Funk has an article in today's PG, Mt. Lebanon hiring firm to count deer.

"It is something that came to light while I was campaigning," said Kristen Linfante, who was elected as Ward 3 commissioner in 2011. "Deer management and deer problems were by far the biggest issue that people brought to me. Of all of the things that a municipality has to address, the No. 1 topic that repeatedly came up was, 'What are you going to do about the deer problem?' "

What I find fascinating is that I walked the same streets Kristen did when I was canvassing neighborhoods and not one person asked me about deer.  Turkeys? Yes, but no deer. We talked about parks, sidewalks, roads, taxes, the high school renovation - even though that had nothing to do with the municipality side of government, and the number one complaint? Business Storage Solutions
I blogged about Ward 3 issues here. 

Another tidbit that I find troublesome in this article is:

"I am adamant in my belief that the risk of anyone being injured in a cull is far, far less than anyone being injured in a conflict with the deer," Ms. Linfante said. "Not that I believe nothing could possibly happen, but the benefits certainly outweigh the risks."

Oh, that is comforting. We get 150 calls about deer every year. So we lose a person or two in the cull. The benefits certainly outweigh the risks. Not a word of thanks to the commissioners or even to the constituents who were treated rudely by her.

Fortunately, Kelly Fraasch was also interviewed and saved the day by providing a logical perspective. You can read about it in an earlier Lebo Citizens post, Aerial survey coming this month. 

A comment submitted to the PG story online sums it up:

"Between the library/breast story and this one, Mt. Lebo is certainly getting some press today..."

 

Aerial survey coming this month

People have been asking me to blog about the deer survey that was passed on Monday night, but I have been hesitating since it is like waving a red flag in front of a bull.  Anytime I have brought up deer management, my commissioner would go into attack mode.

A group of us have been meeting with Commissioner Fraasch to find common ground concerning deer management.  Through many meetings, Kelly Fraasch was able to come up with an excellent plan for deer management, as well as a cost effective, yet quite accurate method to count deer in Mt. Lebanon. In her blog posting, Deer...Follow up! , Kelly writes:

The aerial survey has far less potential for human error. Pictures are taken from an airplane and a wildlife specialist is able to count our deer population, note where the herds are located and even tell us the gender of the deer.
Here’s more information about the aerial survey FLIR_surveys
wildlife professional. A recent estimated cost by Susan Bernatas suggests it will cost about $5,400 per survey which would come in less than our budgeted cost.

In the Post Gazette article, it was noted that Kristen Linfante is still pushing for a cull while others are striving for a safer alternative to manage the deer population.

Deer survey coming next month

A survey to estimate the number of deer in the community will be taken next month.

Commissioners voted Monday to authorize municipal officials to solicit proposals for a survey to be conducted in February.

A late addition to the 2013 budget expenditures allots $12,000 for surveys as part of the effort to mitigate safety hazards caused by deer.

Commissioners planned to authorize two such counts this year, with the second one targeted for November, but they revised their intentions prior to Monday's vote.

A second survey would take place in February 2014, if deemed necessary. More accurate comparisons can be drawn from counts done at the same time of year as opposed to different seasons.

The municipality last conducted a deer survey in 2007.

Commissioner Kristen Linfante questioned the need for a repeat survey next year, saying a formula is available to estimate future deer populations based on an initial count. She said that according to her conversations with the head of a research company that does surveys, conducting two in consecutive months might result in a more accurate count.

The municipality plans to install additional signs and conduct a public education campaign in an attempt to decrease the number of deer-related accidents.

While many residents agree on the need for action to improve safety, the method of how to do it has caused divisiveness. Some argue that a cull using high-powered rifles would be the most effective method; others oppose measures that involve firearms.

Kimberly Schevtchuk said she supports a proposal by Commissioner Kelly Fraasch that involves deer sterilization. Such a method has "proved effective in other communities. It keeps public safety a priority," Ms. Schevtchuk said.

Ms. Linfante, however, expressed concern about the short-term results of a sterilization program and said she would support it in conjunction with a cull.

Read more: http://www.post-gazette.com/stories/local/neighborhoods-south/the-south-at-a-glance-672829/#ixzz2JZz5XSzF

Meanwhile on Facebook, mtl Magazine posted a photo of foxes that are in our community.


Photo by mtl - Mt. Lebanon Magazine


 I want to thank Kelly for working with us. By listening to any commission podcast regarding deer management, it is easy to pick out our committee. It consisted of every single person whom my commissioner attacked.  Through listening, collaborating, and communicating, Commissioner Fraasch was able to move the deer management program forward.