MT. LEBANON TAKE-AWAYS FROM THE 2012 GENERAL ELECTION

The following letter to the editor was submitted by frequent Lebo Citizens contributor, Richard Gideon. Mr. Gideon also provided a companion piece to his letter, which can be found here.

MT. LEBANON TAKE-AWAYS FROM THE 2012 GENERAL ELECTION
by Richard Gideon

Our quadrennial exercise in national representative democracy is over and the robo-calls have ceased - thank God! Election 2012 was a good one for Democrats, generally speaking, although the U.S. House of Representatives remains in Republican hands. But do the national and state races portend what may be in store for the Municipality of Mt. Lebanon in 2013? Based on the reactions to the 2012 General Election on this Blog local Republicans seem torn between depression and hostility toward their own party, and fear a socialist takeover. But Mt. Lebanon voters are a combination of the fickle, the uninformed, the shewed, the principled, and the realists. Add a sprinkling of "coin-flippers" and you can get some surprising results at the polls. Let's take a look at the results of all the races on the 2012 ballot and see if there is anything worth noting, and what we might expect to see next year. All of the data presented comes from the Allegheny County Board of Elections, and is for Mt. Lebanon only.

First, there are 26,667 registered voters in Mt. Lebanon, of which 19,666 showed up on 6 November 2012 to cast votes (or sent in absentee ballots). This represents a turnout of 73.75%, and is down from the last presidential election in 2008. Next, there are five wards in Mt. Lebanon, and a total of 38 districts. In the race for President of the United States there were four names on the ballot, representing the Republican, Democratic, Green, and Libertarian parties. The County's website shows a place-holder for the Constitutional Party, but there was no candidate represented.

FEDERAL RACES
Looking at federal races, in Mt. Lebanon 19,599 people cast a vote for president, with 53.2% of the vote going to the Democrats, 45.61% to the Republicans, 0.29% to the Greens, and 0.71% to the Libertarians. In terms of DISTRICTS, 81.58% voted Democratic and 18.42% voted Republican; only seven of the 38 districts voted a Republican majority.

In the race for U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania a total of 19337 votes were cast, with Democrat Robert Casey Jr. winning with 55.15% of the total. Republican Tom Smith picked up 43.32% of the total, and Libertarian Rayburn Douglas Smith received 1.47%. From a district perspective, four went Republican with 34 going Democratic. From this federal race onward there were no other third party candidates.

In the race for U.S. House of Representatives for the 18th Congressional District, Republican Tim Murphy easily defeated his Democratic rival Larry Maggi, picking up 56.94% of the 19,068 votes cast to Maggi's 42.86%. But from a District perspective, 37 out of 38 went Republican, with only one voting Democratic; a percentage of 97.37% to 2.63% in favor of the Republicans

PENNSYLVANIA RACES
As the races moved to from federal to state the results started to get more interesting. In the Pennsylvania Attorney General race, Mt. Lebanon cast 18,989 total votes, with 54.19% going to Democrat Kathleen G. Kane, 43.2% for David J. Freed, and 2.56% for Libertarian Marakay J. Rogers. Six out of Mt. Lebanon's 38 Districts voted Republican, and 32 voted Democratic.

In the Pennsylvania State Treasurer's race, Mt. Lebanon gave a win to Democrat Robert M. McCord over Republican Diana Irey Vaughan, with 51.92% vs. 44.2% of the 18,673 votes cast. Patricia M. Fryman won 716 votes and 3.83% of the total as a Libertarian. Eight Mt. Lebanon Districts voted Republican, whilst 30 voted Democratic.

In the race for State Senator from the 37th Senatorial District, 19,203 votes were cast, and Democrat Matt Smith picked up 60.4% of them. Republican D. Raja only managed to win 39.49%. All Mt. Lebanon voting Districts went Democratic. It is rather obvious that a significant number of registered Republicans and Independents voted Democratic, and that Raja was unpopular.

But the race for Pennsylvania Auditor General was probably the most interesting. Of the 18,854 total votes cast, Republican John Maher gathered 48.57% to Democrat Eugene A. DePasquale's 47.46%. Libertarian Betsy Elizabeth Summers picked up 3.91% - 737 votes - which made her a "spoiler" and the only third party candidate acting as such, the difference between Maher and DePasquale being just 209 votes! District wise, 17 went to the Republicans, 19 to the Democrats, and two were ties between the Republican and Democrat, making Summers a "spoiler" in those districts.

Finally, Matt Smith also ran for his seat as Representative from the 42nd District in the Pennsylvania General Assembly unopposed, gathering 16,836 out of 17,178 votes. The remaining 342 votes were write-ins. This was hardly a "race"; but it has the most "no shows," with 2,488 voters skipping it altogether. The fact that 342 people wrote in a selection is worth noting, as 342 represents more people than voted IN TOTAL in 34 out of 38 Mt. Lebanon Districts in 2011!

TAKE-AWAYS
1. Only seven districts in Mt. Lebanon gave any race 100% of the votes it could have received; that race was President of the United States. In all other elections there were always fewer votes cast for a given race than that race might have received. Across the municipality as a whole, no race received 100% of the ballots cast. Put another way, using the POTUS race as an example 19,666 registered votes went to the polls, but the POTUS race received a total of 19,599 votes; meaning 67 people didn't cast a vote for any of the candidates for President, nor did they use the write-in option. Also, as the race became more local the number of people casting votes dropped off. This can be seen by comparing the 19,599 votes for POTUS compared to 17,178 in the unopposed 42nd District "race."

2. Seven thousand and one registered Mt. Lebanon voters did not vote, which is more than the non-voters in the 2008 election (6,751). This is almost twice as many potential votes as the largest margin of any of the races; which was the PA Senatorial race in the 37th District. For most races it is three to four times the difference! In tight races even a few hundred extra voters might change the results of an election. Since "off-year" elections see a substantial drop in voter participation it means that new candidates for local office need to communicate to the community at large if they want to win.

3. While Mt. Lebanon voted the Democrats a majority in most 2012 races, the more local the race the more it came down to the candidate himself as opposed to a party ideology. Republican Tim Murphy handily won the 18th U.S. Congressional race in Mt. Lebanon by 2,646 votes over his Democratic rival plus 38 write-in votes. Conversely, Democrat Matt Smith's margin was an impressive 3,995 votes over his Republican opponent plus 20 write-in votes.

4. Up for grabs in Mt. Lebanon next year are the commission seats of Matt Kluck (Ward 2) and David Brumfield (Ward 4), and the Mt. Lebanon School Board "at large" positions currently held by Josephine Posti, Dale Ostergaard, Mary Birks, and Daniel Remely. Based on the results of the 2012 general election it would appear that Republican Matt Kluck's commission seat is vulnerable. Also, two "Republicans" on the school board, Dale Ostergaard and Daniel Remely, might be vulnerable as well. But while the school board seems to be an impregnable progressive plutocracy - and it certainly is as of this writing - it is not immune to the vicissitudes of the economy; and it is the economy more than any other issue that usually determines how people vote. The major party candidates (who cross-file and therefore run as "Demopublicans") may have a lock on local elections now, but a well-run independent campaign could very well win a Commission's or Director's chair. An independent's chances will likely depend upon a)the local economy next November, and b)the nature of the candidate himself or herself. It won't be easy or pretty, but it can be done.

Bottom line: Although things look rosy for the Democrats and Progressives in Mt. Lebanon, I would not let the results of the Federal elections predetermine the outcome of next year's local contests. The results of various state races seem to indicate that things are more fluid in "Club Lebo" than they appear. Local candidates for the Commission and the School Board that are true independents have a legitimate, although tough, shot at winning those seats. But such candidates need to be flushed out now if they are to have a chance.